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RECENT POSTS

Markets in Minutes September 2019
*nbsp; Markets in Minutes September 15, 2019 S&P 500 10 Year Treasury Gold World Ex-US US Dollar Commodities Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding of current market conditions. This update covers April 1 – August 31, 2019 Investor Learning: “What we learn from history […] Read more

Bull & Bear Report: Market Risk Update July 2019
Bull & Bear Report: Market Risk Update — July 15, 2019 News headlines and media coverage of the markets can make investors edgy or even fearful. But success in investing means being able to set aside emotions and hunches and to understand where the risks really are and whether they have come to a […] Read more
The Trade War, the US Economy, the Market & How Buying American Can Win It All.
The Trade War, the US Economy, the Market & How Buying American Can Win It All. —First published on 5/26/2019 There is considerable angst in the markets and among the talking heads about the US/China trade dispute which will shortly become a trade war (contrary to my initial expectations). Rather than take a partisan stance […] Read more
Bull & Bear Report: Market Risk Update
: Bull & Bear Report: Market Risk Update — April 28, 2019 News headlines and media coverage of the markets can make investors edgy or even fearful. But success in investing means being able to set aside emotions and hunches and to understand where the risks really are and whether they have come to […] Read more
Markets in Minutes April 1, 2019
Markets in Minutes April 1, 2019 S&P 500 10 Year Treasury Gold World Ex-US US Dollar Commodities Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding of current market conditions. This update covers January 1 – March 31, 2019 Investor Learning: “A year is far too […] Read more
Is This Time Different? A Brief History of Messy Corrections
Is This Time Different? A Brief History of Messy Corrections –December 13, 2018 “The big money is not in the buying and the selling, but in the waiting.” – Charlie Munger “The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient.” – Warren Buffett I know I’ve shared those quotes […] Read more
October 2018 Risk Update
Bull & Bear Report: Market Risk Update — October 13, 2018 When the market falls rapidly as we experienced this past week, it can make investors edgy or even fearful. But it’s more important to understand where the risks are and whether they have come to a point where continued investment is likely […] Read more

Markets in Minutes October 6 2018
Markets in Minutes: October 6, 2018 S&P 500 * 10 Year Treasury * Gold * World Ex-US * US Dollar * Commodities * US Economy * Stock Market Valuation Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding of current market conditions. This update covers […] Read more

Markets in Minutes Sept 5 2018
Markets in Minutes: September 5, 2018 S&P 500 * 10 Year Treasury * Gold * World Ex-US * US Dollar * Commodities * US Economy * Stock Market Valuation Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding of current market conditions. Updates are broken […] Read more
Markets in Minutes May 5 2018
Markets in Minutes: May 5, 2018 S&P 500 * 10 Year Treasury * Gold * World Ex-US * US Dollar * Commodities * US Economy * Stock Market Valuation Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding of current market conditions. This update covers […] Read more
Market Risk Snapshot April 2018
Market Risk Snapshot –April 29, 2018 This was produced by ACI’s Market Strategist for RetireWealthy.tips and ACI wanted to make it available here. See below… The market has been really choppy for a couple months. The first corrective period began to end, then talk of tariffs plunged us right back into another one. […] Read more
Market Risk Update March 2018
Market Risk Update — March 28, 2018 We’ve seen some sharp moves in the market so far in 2018, with 9 weeks (so far) where the S&P 500 rose or fell 2% or more vs. none for last year. Experiencing these moves after a year of relative quiet can be a bit unnerving for some […] Read more
Markets in Minutes March 4 2018
Markets in Minutes: March 4, 2018 S&P 500 10 Year Treasury Gold World Ex-US US Dollar Commodities US Economy Stock Market Valuation Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding of current market conditions. This update covers December 1 – December 30, 2017 Investor […] Read more

Markets in Minutes December 2017
Markets in Minutes: January 6, 2017 S&P 500 10 Year Treasury Gold World Ex-US US Dollar Commodities US Economy Stock Market Valuation Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding […] Read more

Markets in Minutes November 2017
Markets in Minutes: December 2, 2017 S&P 500 * Tax Cuts * 10 Year Treasury * Gold * World * Ex-US * US Dollar * Commodities * US Economy * Stock Market Valuation Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding of current market […] Read more

Markets in Minutes October 2017
Markets in Minutes: October 30, 2015 S&P 500 10 Year Treasury Gold World Ex-US US Dollar Commodities US Economy Stock Market Valuation Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding of current market conditions. This update covers October […] Read more

2nd Half 2017 Market Outlook & 1st Half Results
ACI 2nd Half 2017 Market Outlook & 1st Half Results — July 25, 2017 It’s been an interesting and largely rewarding year in the markets so far as many ACI expectations have come to pass. While ACI is not in the forecasting game, it is nice when general expectations are mostly born out […] Read more

The Mostly Exaggerated Death Of Retail
The Mostly Exaggerated Death of Retail — July 9, 2017 The airwaves and internet are full of news hailing the death of retail at the hands of Amazon. Will Retail look very different in 10 years? Absolutely. But that’s only part of the story. It’s not all about Amazon’s dominance. A […] Read more

Understanding the Market: S&P 500 Cheaper than 2015.
Understanding the Market: The S&P is Cheaper Than in 2015/2016. — July 9, 2017 Headlines and the financial media are again selling the risks posed by high valuations. The simplest perspective on the expense of the market, and probably the broadest, is the price-to-earnings ratio. It’s important to note that high valuations do not […] Read more

Markets in Minutes June 30, 2017
Markets in Minutes June 30, 2017 S&P 500 10 Year Treasury Gold World Ex-US US Dollar Commodities Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding of current market conditions. This update covers April 15 – June 30, 2017. Investor Learning: “Holding cash is uncomfortable, but not as […] Read more

Valuations, Market Expectations & Interest Rates
Valuations, Stock Returns & Interest Rates. — June 10, 2017 Before I begin, I thought I’d include a longish quote from The Oracle, to lend perspective – “Let’s start by defining ‘investing.’ The definition is simple but often forgotten: Investing is laying out money now to get more money back in the future – more money […] Read more

Getting More Income (and More Safety) from the Market
How to Get More Income (and More Safety) from the Markets. — May 14, 2017 Investors take advantage of 3 major ways to generate income from the market; dividends from bonds or stocks, pure stock dividend strategies, or preferred stock plays where the yield is higher than a normal stock dividend strategy but […] Read more

Markets in Minutes April 30, 2017
Markets in Minutes April 30, 2017 S&P 500 10 Year Treasury Gold World Ex-US US Dollar Commodities Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding of current market conditions. This update covers April 17 – April 28, 2017. Investor Learning: “We would rather underperform […] Read more

2 Things To Do Today To Retire Rich (Or At Least Worry Free) April 23, 2017
2 Things To Do Today To Retire Rich (Or At Least Worry Free) April 23, 2017 Every success in life begins with understanding what it takes to realize that success and then working towards that goal over time. Retirement is no different. The younger you are when you develop this understanding, the more […] Read more

Markets in Minutes April 15, 2017
Markets in Minutes April 15, 2017 S&P 500 10 Year Treasury Gold World Ex-US US Dollar Commodities Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding of current market conditions. This update covers March 20 – April 14, 2017. Investor Learning: “Good long-term performance results […] Read more

Here’s How to Get Better Investment Returns
Here’s How to Get Better Investment Returns April 02, 2017 “Greedy, short-term orientated investors may lose sight of a sound mathematical reason for avoiding loss; the effects of compounding on even moderate returns over years are compelling, if not downright mind boggling.” Seth Klarman (17% annualized returns over more than 30 years) Today I […] Read more

Markets in Minutes March 20 2017
Markets in Minutes March 20, 2017 Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding of current market conditions. This update covers March 1 – 17, 2017. In this update: S&P 500, Bonds, Gold, World Stock Market, US Dollar, Commodities, the Economy, Recession Probability Indicator, & S&P […] Read more

Cut Your Taxes & Fatten Your Retirement March 12, 2017
Cut Your Taxes & Fatten Your Retirement March 12, 2017 Uncle Sam wants his money and smart investors are looking for ways to reduce their tax burden. One of the simplest ways is to contribute money to your retirement. If you are self-employed, you may be able to deduct up to $53, 000 from […] Read more

Markets in Minutes February 28, 2017
Markets in Minutes February 28, 2017 Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and friends a quick and easy understanding of current market conditions. In this update: S&P 500, Bonds, Bonds, Gold, World Stock Market, US Dollar, Commodities, the Economy, Earnings, Recession Probability Indicator, & S&P 500 chart. Investor Learning: Successful […] Read more

Markets in Minutes February 5, 2017
Markets in Minutes February 5, 2017 Markets in Minutes are short video updates that survey the 6 major asset classes US investors typically invest in. Each update features 3 asset classes to help investors understand what is happening in each market. In this update: S&P 500 […] Read more

Become a Stock Market Landlord January 29, 2017
Become a Stock Market Landlord January 29, 2017 Stocks are for buying, not renting. Or are they? The fact is that stocks can be used for consistent income while reducing the volatility (or risk) of holding stocks. This is done by selling the rights to a stock for a pre-determined period of time […] Read more

Markets in Minutes January 22, 2017
Markets in Minutes January 22, 2017 This week I take a look at the current set up in gold, world stocks ex-US, and the US Dollar. You may use the player controls to fast forward, stop, or review whichever sections of the update are most relevant to you. The numbers below reflect the […] Read more

Process Portfolios 2016 Performance Summary January 15, 2017
Process Portfolios 2016 Performance Summary January 15, 2017 It was a pretty good year for ACI portfolios with Market Income and Durable Opportunities providing particularly strong risk adjusted returns. The video is front loaded with the key information first and then a brief discussion of how each portfolio did over the year. Those […] Read more

Markets in Minutes January 8, 2017
Markets in Minutes January 8, 2017 Markets in Minutes are short video updates that survey the 6 major asset classes US investors typically invest in. Each update features 3 asset classes to help investors understand what is happening in each market. In this update: S&P 500 0:57 10 Year Bond 3:44 Oil […] Read more

Markets in Minutes December 2016
Markets in Minutes December 19, 2016 This short video offers a quick survey of the major markets that normally attract US investors and a summary of their current status. Moving forward, this update will be split into 3 markets per update. Video below. The US Stock Market in the form of the […] Read more

Trump and Your Taxes
Trump and Your Taxes – Changes are Coming December 2, 2016 First off, it’s important to understand that it’s unlikely all of Trump’s tax proposals will come to pass. Regardless, there are a couple big takeaways to consider given the potential scale of impending tax changes and the high probability tax rates will […] Read more

Pre-Election Market Update
November 6, 2016 First, here is a resource that may useful – www.vote411.org. This site will allow you to learn more about the issues and candidates not only on the national level but in your own community. I hope it helps everyone make a more informed vote on Tuesday. Given the uncertainty heading into […] Read more

Q3 2016 Performance Update and Q4 Outlook
Q3 Performance Update including Year-to-Date Results and 4th Quarter Outlook.October 16, 2016 Out of respect for everyone’s time and interest, I’ve included a quick “executive” summary below and also front loaded the video with the key numbers. Those wanting a little more detail can stick around for the whole video. My market outlook for […] Read more

Is the Market Over-Inflated?
Is the Market Over-Inflated? October 2, 2016 Recently, the financial media has focused on a number of pundits that claim the market is grossly overvalued, and that the Fed’s low rate policy has forced stocks into a bubble. But are they? An important part of wealth management is to understand the fundamental drivers of […] Read more

Consumer Spending Strengthens – Recession Risk Dips
Consumer Spending Strengthens – Recession Risk Falls 9/7/2016 Before we get going, I was recently asked what the point is of understanding whether or not we are entering a recession. This person had been told by their broker that to “ride the rallies you have to ride out the valleys.” Catchy, right? The reason […] Read more

Is There a Correction Coming?
Correction Around the Corner? 9/1/2016 Markets have witnessed two corrections so far this year and fears seem to be mounting that another is right around the corner. The first correction took hold following the Fed rate raise last December with the S&P 500 falling approximately -14% before markets began to stabilize. Despite the dark promises […] Read more

How To Avoid Taxes on 80% of Your Investment Income
How to Avoid Taxes on 80% of Your Investment Income. Hard to believe, right? But thanks to the way the US government supports US oil and gas companies, you may only pay taxes on around 20% of your income from energy related Master Limited Partnerships (“MLPs”). As an investor, this can be a […] Read more
ACI Process Portfolios 1st Half 2016 Summary & 2nd Half Outlook
ACI Process Portfolios: 1st Half 2016 Performance & 2nd Half Outlook The video below has the most important information in the first minutes including performance details. The video player has controls to allow you to fast forward, pause or repeat whatever section of the video is most relevant to you. […] Read more

Will Brexit Take the Market Down?
Will Brexit Take the Market Down? Only in the Short Term. Executive Summary: 1) Odds are UK stays. If it stays markets should stay stable or move up incrementally. 2) If UK exits, equity markets could sell down 5%-20% peak to trough. 3) The real economic impact to the US is likely very small, bordering […] Read more

Recession Watch June 2016
Ripped From the Headlines: “Will a Fed Rate Raise Put the U.S. In Recession?” Once again, media pundits are all atwitter about the idea the Fed will raise rates either this month or next, putting the U.S. into Recession. As before, this is less about the actual impact to the economy and more about […] Read more

Q1 2016 Quarterly Update and Market Outlook
>Q1 2016 Year-to-Date and Market Outlook Update The video below reviews performance for all 6 Process Portfolios results year-to-date through April 15, 2016 and also includes an updated Market Outlook near the end. 2016 began with the worst January in at least a generation and a return to higher levels of volatility thanks to central […] Read more

What’s Up With The Economy? Recession Probability and Business Conditions Update
There has been a lot of economic doom and gloom talk over the last couple months, with media “expert” after media “expert” saying the US economy is about to fall into a recession. It comes with the predictable warnings about a bad bear market. The vast majority of these talking heads are just voicing […] Read more

Cut Your Taxes: Put Money In Your Retirement Accounts
It’s that time again – Uncle Sam wants his money and smart investors are looking for ways to reduce their tax burden. One of the simplest ways is to contribute money to your retirement. If you are self-employed, you may be able to deduct up to $53, 000 from your 2015 Earned Income and […] Read more

Stock Market Outlook Q1 2016
Impending Bear Market or Just a Sharp Correction? In this update, I ask (and answer) the question of whether we are on heading into a damaging Bear Market or if it’s more likely what we are seeing is just a sharp correction. The video is front loaded with the “executive summary” in the first […] Read more

2015 Process Portfolios Performance Summary
Press play to for the 2015 performance summary for all 6 Process Portfolios. Highlights: * 4/6 Portfolios beat their benchmarks. * 3/6 portfolios beat the market (only 1 is designed to do that). All 3 featured about 30% less risk than buying the market. * Significant out-performance in Market Income Portfolio and strong 2nd […] Read more

2016 Stock Market: What You Need to Know
4 Things You Need to Know About Investing in 2016 We’ve seen a lot of headlines recently, most of them pretty alarming to the average person. Hand in hand with those headlines we’ve seen markets make some of the most substantial short term moves in recent history. In the first 5 market days of […] Read more

Recession Watch
Is 2016 the Year of Recession? This question seems to be on everyone’s mind and even the media talking heads have jumped on it to grab readers & viewers. Spoiler: As of today, there is no recession on the horizon. The Recession Probability Indicator (“RPI”) scored a 12 at the most recent reading, meaning […] Read more

So, We May Have a Bump Coming in the Market
So, We May Have a Bump Coming in the Market For those that don’t know, the vast majority of analysts and institutional investment managers believe that the Federal Reserve will raise rates for the first time since the Great Recession December 16th. They also see this as an overall positive for the markets. So […] Read more

Why Recessions Kill Investment Portfolios (and Poorly Protected Retirements)
Why Recessions Kill Investment Portfolios (and Poorly Protected Retirements) We’ve all heard “You’ve got to be in it for the long term,” or “You can’t catch the rallies unless you are in the market” from brokers or financial salespeople (they prefer “financial advisor”) and as a result more than one investor has had night […] Read more

Process Portfolios Performance Update October 2015
Market Beating Portfolios – Performance Update October 2015 The video below reviews performance for all 6 Process Portfolios for the month of October as well as year-to-date results. For reference, I’ve include a table of 2015 year-to-date performance for the major indices & asset classes above the video player. It hasn’t been an easy […] Read more

Is the S&P 500 Over Valued? Yes. What Should You Do? Market Valuation Update November 2015
Is the S&P 500 Over Valued? Yes. What Should You Do? Market Valuation Update November 2015 I’ve broken this update into 2 parts. The first will just give the big picture summary for my executive type clients and the second, below the illustrations, is a discussion of the factors involved for those interested. The […] Read more

Jobs Up, Spending Solid. Will December Bring Santa or the Grinch? RPI & Business Conditions Update
The Market has circled back around to concerns about a possible Fed rate raise and weakness in overseas economies since recovering in October, losing over 2% as of today’s writing. But recent data suggest little in the way of changes in US economic data – jobs are trudging along with a slight recent […] Read more

Will US Economy Sink or Support the Stock Market?
Will the Economy Sink or Support the Stock Market? Investment & Business Conditions Update October 2015 There has been great concern recently among talking heads whether or not the Fed will raise rates and what the impact on the economy will be if they do. The fact is the US economy is trudging along […] Read more

Stock Market Ups and Downs. What’s Next? Stock Market Outlook
Stock Market Outlook September 24, 2015 We’ve seen a lot of volatility (up and down, mostly down) in the market recently and headlines have some investors worried. Are there good reasons to be concerned? Maybe, but what’s really happening under the stock market’s hood? Video below. Please share using the buttons below the video. Warm […] Read more

Is the Potential Fed Rate Raise a Recession Risk? RPI & Business Conditions Update
Is the Fed in Danger of Starting an Accidental Recession? RPI & Business Conditions Update September 2015 There is a lot of debate about the lack of clarity in the Fed’s communication to market participants over the last several months, and markets generally do not like uncertainty. Some recent headlines are talking about an […] Read more

ACI Selected for 2015 Wealth & Money Management Awards
Wealth and Finance International, a print and online magazine dedicated to providing fund managers and institutional and private investors around the world with the latest industry news across both traditional and alternative investment sectors, has named ACI Wealth Advisors as an award winner for two categories in 2015. 2015 Wealth & Money Management AwardsFrom […] Read more

Stock Market Outlook August 2015 S&P 500 Loses 5% in 2 Days. What’s Happening?
Stock Market Outlook August 23, 2015 See the below 7 minute video for my current market outlook. I thought I’d release this a couple days early given the big selloff we saw in the market last week. Summary: Good news–No evidence of an incipient Bear Market as yet. Please share using the buttons below. […] Read more

August RPI & Business Conditions Update – Is Investing Still a Good Idea?
A quick update on what the Recession Probability Indicator is telling us moving into the Fall. The most recent reading (for May 2015) is STABLE with an RPI score of 12 (Below 20 generally favorable, above 20 not so much). The RPI runs on about a 2 month delay due to the Fed’s data […] Read more
Buffett Buying Out ACI’s Largest Holding
Buffett Buying Out ACI’s Largest Holding Precision Castparts announced this morning that it has agreed to be acquired by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway for $235 a share, subject to shareholder approval. ACI views this as a validation of the research process for ACI’s Durable Opportunities Portfolio. Precision Castparts is the largest holding in the […] Read more

Portfolios Update July 2015
July 2015 performance update on 3 of our Portfolios: Core Equity, Full Cycle, and Market Income. Market Income in particular continues to lead with year-to-date results about 50% higher than the S&P 500. If you’d prefer not to view the video in entirety, you can scroll ahead to whatever segment you are most interested […] Read more
Core Equity Portfolio Update June 2015
Here is the most recent update on the Core Equity Portfolio. Core Equity is ACI’s largest portfolio by assets and usually accounts for 40% – 70% of any given client account. Kindest Regards, Dak Hartsock Chief Market Strategist ACI Wealth Advisors,LLC Process Portfolios Read more

Economy Showing Signs of Wear? Recession Probability Update April 2015
RPI Score Moves to 27 from 12 One of the major components of the RPI has recorded it’s 3rd negative month in a row. This has occurred three times in the last 15 years. Two of those occasions marked the beginning of market declines that ultimately became crashes. The move above 20 creates a […] Read more

Alternative Ways to Manage Health Care Costs using Inexpensive Term Insurance
It’s widely known that one of the largest costs for Americans is health care. In retirement, many Americans make the often incorrect assumption that Medicare or Medicare supplemental insurance will handle the bulk of their medical expenses. Even those that think more realistically about their long term health expenses are taken aback by the […] Read more

The Fed Quietly Keeps QE Going
The Fed Quietly Keeps QE Going Just like the balance sheet of any company, the balance sheet of Federal Reserve includes a large number of distinct assets and liabilities. The FED has been engaging in quantitative easing policies (called QE policies) to stimulate an economy that has continued to recover well below potential. Since […] Read more

US Economy Plugging Along–Recession Probability Indicator Update March 2015
US Economy Plugging Along–Recession Probability Indicator Update March 2015 The Recession Probability Indicator (“RPI”) is proprietary tool for measuring the strength of the American economy. When the RPI signals increasing odds of recession, the investment environment for stocks usually becomes unfavorable, which basically means stocks go down more than up during such periods. Sometimes […] Read more