Is 2016 the Year of Recession? This question seems to be on everyone’s mind and even the media talking heads have jumped on it to grab readers & viewers.
Spoiler: As of today, there is no recession on the horizon. The Recession Probability Indicator (“RPI”) scored a 12 at the most recent reading, meaning the economic environment for investment is stable. That is subject to change, but as with all things that have to do with investing; it’s better to take direction from facts and not fears. My personal opinion is that the odds of recession are higher in 2016 than they were in 2015, but the fact remains: no recession yet on the horizon.
That doesn’t mean the market can’t go up and down (sometimes a lot), but that history vastly favors those who stay invested despite volatility, as long as there is no recession imminent. Don’t take my opinion, click the title at the right to see the facts– Why Recessions Kill Investment Portfolios.
Here’s some simple and quick proof-in-the-pudding: Pretend you had $200,000 to invest in January 2000. The first block gets invested the way financial salespeople tell you to invest – it’s going to stay invested no matter what because you “have to be in it for the long term.”
The second block of $100,000 is, to be simple, going to move to 100% cash as soon as it looks like there may be a recession coming. Call that the “RPI Guided” for Recession Probability Indicator.
Where are these two investments at the end of December 2015?
As you can see below, it pays to make rational decisions about investments rather than getting caught up in short term volatility or whatever the media clones are spouting off about.
As I observed in one of last month’s articles, We May Have a Bump Coming in the Markets (click title to read), it wasn’t clear a Fed rate raise was going to be the positive short term catalyst many market observers & participants thought. It may be that much of what we are seeing as we start 2016 is the holiday-delayed reaction to the Fed raise, mixed in with a liberal dose of alarming headlines arising from a wide spectrum of topics, some of which have no real bearing on investing. Some (me) might say most of which have no real bearing on investing.
Remember, fear helps the media sell advertising and stock brokers earn commissions, but it sure as heck doesn’t help investment portfolios do what they are supposed to do, which is be there for you when you retire, with the assets you need to live the way you want to. Don’t let short term noise get in the way of a solid plan. Only impending recessions should do that, and if you have a real investment plan, you already know what you are going to do when the next recession comes.
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To Smarter Investing,
Chief Market Strategist
ACI Wealth Advisors, LLC.
Process Portfolios, LLC.